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Abstract
This paper investigates the causal impact of international trade on interstate military conflicts using global bilateral data from 1962 to 2014. To address endogeneity concerns, we exploit exogenous spatial-temporal variation in international trade stemming from technological advances in air relative to maritime transport. Empirical results demonstrate a strong "peace dividend" of international trade: that is, increased trade significantly reduces the probability and intensity of conflicts between nations. This effect remains robust across specifications and withstands a wide range of potential confounders. Such findings highlight how economic interdependence shapes international conflict, a relationship that is especially relevant amid escalating geopolitical tensions and the global shift toward "decoupling", "de-risking", and greater trade protectionism.
Speaker Bio
Arjun Srinivasan is a PhD Student in Economics at Columbia University. Diego Tocre is a PhD Student in Economics at Columbia University.
To be announced.
Abstract
This paper investigates the causal impact of international trade on interstate military conflicts using global bilateral data from 1962 to 2014. To address endogeneity concerns, we exploit exogenous spatial-temporal variation in international trade stemming from technological advances in air relative to maritime transport. Empirical results demonstrate a strong "peace dividend" of international trade: that is, increased trade significantly reduces the probability and intensity of conflicts between nations. This effect remains robust across specifications and withstands a wide range of potential confounders. Such findings highlight how economic interdependence shapes international conflict, a relationship that is especially relevant amid escalating geopolitical tensions and the global shift toward "decoupling", "de-risking", and greater trade protectionism.
Speaker Bio
Jörg Stoye is a Professor of Economics at Cornell University.
To be announced.
Abstract
This paper investigates the causal impact of international trade on interstate military conflicts using global bilateral data from 1962 to 2014. To address endogeneity concerns, we exploit exogenous spatial-temporal variation in international trade stemming from technological advances in air relative to maritime transport. Empirical results demonstrate a strong "peace dividend" of international trade: that is, increased trade significantly reduces the probability and intensity of conflicts between nations. This effect remains robust across specifications and withstands a wide range of potential confounders. Such findings highlight how economic interdependence shapes international conflict, a relationship that is especially relevant amid escalating geopolitical tensions and the global shift toward "decoupling", "de-risking", and greater trade protectionism.
Speaker Bio
Sarita Oré-Quispe is a PhD Student in Economics and Education at Columbia University.
The "Peace Dividend" of International Trade: A New Empirical Approach
Abstract
This paper investigates the causal impact of international trade on interstate military conflicts using global bilateral data from 1962 to 2014. To address endogeneity concerns, we exploit exogenous spatial-temporal variation in international trade stemming from technological advances in air relative to maritime transport. Empirical results demonstrate a strong "peace dividend" of international trade: that is, increased trade significantly reduces the probability and intensity of conflicts between nations. This effect remains robust across specifications and withstands a wide range of potential confounders. Such findings highlight how economic interdependence shapes international conflict, a relationship that is especially relevant amid escalating geopolitical tensions and the global shift toward "decoupling", "de-risking", and greater trade protectionism.
Speaker Bio
Christopher Meissner is a Professor of Economics at University of California, Davis.
To be announced.
Abstract
This paper investigates the causal impact of international trade on interstate military conflicts using global bilateral data from 1962 to 2014. To address endogeneity concerns, we exploit exogenous spatial-temporal variation in international trade stemming from technological advances in air relative to maritime transport. Empirical results demonstrate a strong "peace dividend" of international trade: that is, increased trade significantly reduces the probability and intensity of conflicts between nations. This effect remains robust across specifications and withstands a wide range of potential confounders. Such findings highlight how economic interdependence shapes international conflict, a relationship that is especially relevant amid escalating geopolitical tensions and the global shift toward "decoupling", "de-risking", and greater trade protectionism.
Speaker Bio
Zhi Hao Lim is a PhD Student in Economics at Columbia University.
Robert Boyce (Imperial)
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Luhao Zhang (Johns Hopkins)
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